Effects Based Operations for Information Assurance

Project Summary

The goal is to demonstrate the utility of the CAESAR II/EB research tool for developing courses of action to support Effects Based Operations for Information Assurance. The objectives in support of this goal are three-fold. First, explore IA research activities and needs to identify potential opportunity areas that are candidates for applying the CAESAR II/EB tool. Second, assess and select opportunity areas to be used as case studies. Third, apply the CAESAR II/EB tool to develop models to demonstrate the benefits of using the tool to assess alternative courses of action that address identified problem or deficiency areas.

The CAESAR II/EB tool has been upgraded to provide both untimed and timed backward probability propagation capabilities. This new capability allows analysts to update the models using field reports of actual events and hence, improve the accuracy of assessments. Time permitting; this new capability will be used to revise the assessments of the COAs developed for the cyber crime investigation model initially developed as part of this project.

• Project Lead: Lee Wagenhals (GMU)